by Norman Halls, contributor
Technological forecast deals with the characteristics of technology, getting ready for the 4th Industrial Revolution, in levels of technical performance, the accuracy or precision of a measuring instrument. Technological forecasting usually deals with only useful machines, procedures or techniques. This is to exclude from the domain of technological forecasting those commodities, services or techniques intended for functioning.
Frederick Taylor, a mechanical engineer, sought to improve industrial efficiency through a technique called “TIME STUDY”. After its first introduction, time study developed in the direction of establishing standard times, while motion study evolved into a technique for improving work methods. The two techniques became integrated and refined into a widely accepted method applicable to the improvement and upgrading of work systems. This integrated approach to work system improvement is known as methods engineering and prediction of future developments – forecasting.
Technological forecasting is the process of predicting the direction and scope of future technological advances. With rapid advances in science and technology shortening product life cycles and improving production techniques, firms need to forecast technological developments. Technological forecasting helps the firm to formulate its business strategy by identifying opportunities and threats presented by technical change, and assists in the planning of research and development programs by identifying new areas to explore. Technological forecasting is increasingly important and influential by exploiting the technologies natural growth.
“The discrete manufacturing sector is highly competitive and price sensitive, requiring every machine, production line, and employee to contribute to achieving optimal yields, high operational efficiencies, and cost controls. The discrete manufacturing sector is undergoing one of the most transformative and challenging business periods in its history—a fourth Industrial Revolution (“Industry 4.0”). This next phase in factory automation is driven by many new forms of digital technology, including machine connectivity and data collection; data analytics and business-intelligence capabilities; touch interfaces and augmented-reality systems; and data-driven automation of complex rules and orchestration.” Bsquare Corp.
“The notion of evolution is inherent to anything in the world. The difference lies in the period required for a particular element to undergo either development or degradation. When we talk about technological solutions, the term revolution is more accustomed to defining considerable changes in this field. Currently, the humankind experiences the fourth generation of such revolution. It is based on the grounds of implementing steam and waterpower (first), electrification (second), and the blossom of electronic and IT devices. Digitalization is not the major hallmark of technological development in 4.0 versions. This term covers a wider scope of innovations including autonomous production, cloud computing, advanced robotics, augmented and virtual reality, integration of operational and information innovations and others. Revolution is already striding along the globe and all we have to do is to welcome it.” Adam Smith ActuatorZone
Technology cannot be considered in isolation from environmental, social, economic and political factors and all these factors can affect a company’s performance and outlook. The quality of decision-making in strategic planning can be improved by information on these factors and by the knowledge and experience learned from obtaining such information. Forecasting and foresight extend and expand the benefits of near-term market intelligence and simultaneously stimulate learning and improvement practices.
It is sometimes important that governments and international organizations, such as health and environmental agencies, set up forecasting and foresight activities. These activities can complement the formal or informal planning, marketing or forecasting and foresight activities set up by business associations and/or individual companies. A co-incidental benefit of national or international studies that are conducted in a participative way is that they can facilitate networking between companies. Much of the value of engaging in foresight activities at a company level lies in working through the processes themselves rather than just reading the results and formal reports arising from the exercise.
“Foresight information can give greater legitimacy to vision statements. A common reason for a company to change its Chief Executive Officer and its employees with the wrong mindset is to introduce a new vision into the organization. Foresighting exercises can provide an alternative way to inject new vision; they are less dependent on the talent or inspiration of a few key individuals. A wide representation of employees can be involved in foresighting, or can learn about its impact and results; this has direct benefits since the vision is already communicated and better understood across the organization. There are also indirect benefits in terms of empowerment, motivation and learning.” From Innovation Portal, Wiley Text
